A cold shower for heat networks

Time to adjust the heat transition

The number of people in the Netherlands installing a heat pump in order to cut their natural gas consumption has grown far faster in the past 7 years than the number of homes connecting to a district heating network. Government grants are available for both options so that the Netherlands will become gas-free by 2050. The popularity of heat pumps might be reducing the financial viability of new heat networks in districts with mixed building types.

A report published by the Netherlands Court of Audit on 4 February 2025, A cold shower for heat networks –Time to adjust the heat transition, reveals that 160,000 heat pumps were installed to make homes more energy efficient in 2023, versus 11,000 new connections to heat networks. Domestic heat pumps tend to last 15 years. The report concludes that the Minister for Climate Policy and Green Growth is running the risk that government grants will be used inefficiently where the 2 measures overlap. This is already occurring in parts of Deventer, Gorinchem, Groningen and Heeg. The minister does not know the extent of the nationwide overlap.

More heat pump installations than heat network connections every year since 2017

More heat pump installations than heat network connections every year since 2017
Figure 1: The figure above shows the number of heat pumps installed in 2017-2023 and the number of new connections to large heat networks in the same period. Heat pumps installations outnumber large heat network connections every year. More than 160,000 heat pumps were installed in 2023, versus 11,000 new heat network connections.

The Court found that more than 90% of grant-funded heat pumps had been installed in districts without a heat network. The overlap might be small but the Court recommends that the minister suspend grant payments for domestic heat pumps if they hold back the construction of heat networks.

Part 2 of the heat transition audit

We published the first part of this audit, on the grant scheme for heat pumps, on 15 May 2024. The audit report we published on 4 February 2025 makes use of a variety of data sources and analytical methods. We examined documents at ministries and institutions and interviewed stakeholders. We also investigated heat network projects, including the construction of heat networks in 3 municipalities: Deventer, Gorinchem and Groningen. We talked with the parties involved in the projects and analysed documents. We analysed data on every district in the Netherlands to identify the overlap between grant-funded heat pumps and operational heat networks, in so far as the data could reveal the overlap as this information is not yet available at national level.

Overlap between heat networks and heat pumps by district

This map of the Netherlands shows the number of new heat pumps or connections to heat networks at district level. The underlying data can be found via the link under the image.
Figure 2: The map above shows the overlap between operational heat networks and grants for private heat pumps in every district in the Netherlands in 2016-2022. There is an overlap in 10% of the districts. In those districts, grants are available for private heat pumps and there is at least 1 connection to an operational heat network. In more than 85% of the districts, only grants for private heat pumps are available.

Download the source data for this map

Municipal heat network plans faltering

There are currently nearly 500, mainly small, heat networks in the Netherlands, with 515,000 connections in total. Many, mainly urban, municipalities are planning to expand their heat networks or build new ones. But several projects have run into financial difficulties since the end of 2023 because they cannot be operated profitably. Government proposals for new networks and the subsequent parliamentary debate later this year will determine whether the impasse will be broken. According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, a district heat network is the most appropriate and lowest-cost solution for a third of the built environment if the Netherlands is to become gas-free by 2050. 

Regulation by the Consumer and Market Authority

Our audit also considered the role of the Consumer and Market Authority (ACM). Until 2024, this regulator did not have effective insight into whether the return network operators earned was more than reasonable, and it was unable to adequately protect the interests of people connected to heat networks.

The ministers’ response to the recommendations

One of the recommendations we make in the report is that alternative funding forms should be sought for the faltering heat transition. The Minister for Climate Policy and Green Growth and the Minister of Housing and Spatial Planning responded to the findings and recommendations in writing, as did the ACM. Their responses were published at the same time as the report.
The report was submitted to the House of Representatives, the Senate and the ministers concerned on 4 February 2025.

Do you have any feedback on this audit?

We welcome all feedback on our audits and investigations. What do you think about our report? If you have any questions or need further information, mail us at feedback@rekenkamer.nl. We read all emails carefully and treat them in confidence.