Quantum technology. It sounds like something from the future, perhaps it is. But there is already a global race to master this new technology. A technology that, after AI, might revolutionise society. It offers many economic opportunities for the Netherlands, but also risks. How is the country preparing for quantum? What is the government doing to mitigate risks and seize opportunities? What public money is being invested and what policies are being implemented? These questions are at the heart of this investigation.

Quantum computers are a threat to the security of government information

  • The risk of quantum technology is that powerful quantum computers could be used to crack cryptography. Cryptography is a technique to secure digital information and IT systems. The government uses it in all kinds of applications, for instance, to:
  • protect confidential personal and commercial information;
  • regulate access to vital infrastructure such as flood defences and bridges;
  • log in with DigiD, the government’s official digital verification system;
  • verify the authenticity of passports.

If quantum computers can crack cryptography, they will put all these applications at risk, with the inevitable societal consequences. The moment they can crack cryptography is known as Q-day. It is uncertain when exactly Q-day will arrive, but the General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) warns that it could be as early as 2030 (AIVD et al., 2024). 

The government must prepare for the threat of quantum computers

Worldwide, scientists are working hard to mitigate the quantum threat. New forms of cryptography are being developed that are resistant to quantum computers: post-quantum cryptography (PQC). To mitigate the risks, government organisations must transition their current cryptographic processes to this safer variant. The transition is known as PQC migration.

Government support to tackle quantum threats

The State Secretary for Digitalisation recognises that, when used by malicious actors, quantum computers can endanger national security. That is why he has launched QvC NL, a quantum-safe cryptography programme, to share information and develop guidelines and so help government organisations with their PQC migrations. Government organisations are themselves pushing to introduce quantum-safe cryptography.

Few government organisations have started addressing quantum threats

There are concerns that government organisations will not start their PQC migration in time. Although most of the government organisations we surveyed are strengthening their information security, few have taken measures that specifically address the threat posed by quantum computers.

Most government organisations have not yet held talks with their suppliers about quantum-safe products or made plans to introduce quantum-safe cryptography. The main obstacles they name are lack of capacity and expertise, and other activities having higher priority because they are considered more urgent.

The government is investing in quantum technology

Quantum technology offers the government, society and the economy many opportunities. It may enable us to make more accurate measurements, communicate more securely and perform complex calculations. This offers opportunities for energy-efficient food production, new materials and enhanced cybersecurity. The government sees quantum tehnology as a key technology with huge economic potential for the Netherlands. The government will invest €615 million in its development through the National Growth Fund in 2021-2028.

The Netherlands is a quantum leader, but will it remain so?

Investment through the National Growth Fund has established a thriving quantum network and made the Netherlands an academic world leader in the technology. The network includes the Quantum Delta NL foundation, the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) and knowledge centres. The National Growth Fund’s advisory committee is impressed with the results the investment has yielded so far. However, there is still work to be done. Many plans and projects are still being set up and it is difficult to predict whether the Netherlands will retain the top spot. The challenge for the future is to translate the potential into tangible applications and secure a position in the high-tech market. Some countries have invested substantially more public money than the Netherlands in quantum technology in recent years.

28% of government organisations have explored quantum opportunities

Quantum technology also offers opportunities to the government. Yet most of the government organisations we surveyed have not yet explored the technology’s potential, partly because it is not clear what tasks quantum technology could perform better than current systems.

Most of the exploratory studies that have been carried out consider where and how quantum technologies can generate added value. Government organisations indicate that the technology still needs further development. They also say several obstacles will need to be overcome when the technology breaks through in the future, such as lack of knowhow and expertise and incompatibility with the current technical infrastructure.

The government is working on a government-wide Quantum Strategy

The Ministry of Economic Affairs is currently working with other ministries on a government-wide Quantum Strategy. The strategy will underline quantum technology’s strategic importance and set targets and actions to address both the opportunities and the risks.

Why this investigation?

Risks need to be managed if central government is to perform and operate effectively. In our opinion, the current preparations should allow not only for the opportunities but also the threats. Only when it is known how the government is preparing for the opportunities and mitigating the risks can parliament oversee the responsible use of quantum technology. This investigation offers a first insight into the government’s preparations for quantum’s opportunities and risks. It also summarises the investment results achieved to date.
7%66%28%Yes 28% of the organisations have explored the opportunities offered by quantum technologyNo Don’t know Focus