71% of central government organisations in the Netherlands have not yet started preparations to protect themselves against the threat of quantum computers. So concludes the Netherlands Court of Audit in a report published today, Focus on quantum technology in central government. The report provides a first insight into the government’s preparations for both the opportunities and the threats of quantum technology.
Quantum technology currently seems a long way off but it already promises a glorious future and harbours an ominous threat. The greatest risk to the government is that foreign governments will use quantum computers to crack encryption techniques. They could then access sensitive information and attack vital infrastructure.
Social upheaval on the horizon
The government uses encryption to protect confidential information, to access vital infrastructure such as flood defences and bridges, to log in with DigiD, the government’s official digital identification app, and to verify passports. If a quantum computer can crack the encryption, there would be major consequences for the whole of society. Sensitive or secret information would be in the public domain, traffic would be disrupted, gates would no longer open. Social upheaval would be just one step away. This can be prevented by post-quantum cryptography, a form of encryption that quantum computers cannot crack.
The Court of Audit concludes in its report that most government organisations are not yet prepared for the quantum threat. Although most of the government organisations we surveyed were taking measures to strengthen information security, they had taken virtually no measures specifically to protect against quantum computers. Most had not yet made plans to introduce quantum-safe cryptography, ministries had not consulted their suppliers and management responsibilities had not been designated.
Quantum computers are a threat to confidential information and vital infrastructure
Quantum computers represent a threat to government information and vital national infrastructure. In the wrong hands, they can manipulate systems and steal information. Identity fraud and non-payment of benefits are just 2 of the dangers.
‘Q-Day’ possibly as soon as 2030
The main obstacles are lack of capacity and expertise, and a lack of urgency because it is not yet known when powerful quantum computers will come on stream. It may take many years before the technology is fully developed, but it could also be very soon. The General Intelligence and Security Service thinks Q-Day (the day on which malicious actors can use quantum computers to crack today’s cryptography) may be as soon as 2030, just 4 years away.
Academic leadership thanks to government funding, but can it be retained?
Quantum technology may also offer many innovative benefits. Super-powerful quantum computers will be able to make more precise measurements, communicate more securely and make complex calculations faster than ordinary computers. The government recognises the technology’s great potential for the Dutch economy and through the National Growth Fund is investing €615 million in it between 2021 and 2028. The money has been used to set up a thriving network and to obtain academic leadership in the field.
Many plans and projects, however, are still in their infancy. It is difficult to predict whether the country will retain its leadership. The main challenge is to translate the technology into tangible, marketable applications and so gain a foothold in the high-tech market. Other countries have been investing very substantial amounts in quantum technology in recent years.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs is working with other ministries on a government-wide quantum strategy. It must include goals and measures that enable the government to deal with both the opportunities and the risks of quantum technology. The precise measures and the available budget, however, are not yet known.